Earlier this week UKRedskin and Ronnie profiled defensive end Calais Campbell and corner back Brandon Carr as possible free agent targets for the Redskins. Now is the time to look at what they might cost, and what it will mean for the Redskins overall cap number. Now the Redskins with more than $40 million to spend against the cap this season (for a detailed report on their cap situation go here) the Redskins can afford these players, but the price still has to be right for it to make sense for Washington.
DE Calais Campbell:
Chance he re-signs: 50%
The Cards definitely want Campbell back, but they might not be willing to break the bank. The Cards don't have a ton of cap room (though they are expected to release some players to get flexibility) and they still have quite a few needs. Also while Campbell seems open to returning, he could explore other options.
Chance he is franchised: 70%
Right now the speculation is that the Cards will franchise Campbell, but that will account for about $10.5 million next year, and right now they don't have the money to make that sort of commitment. While they can clear some money with cuts and restructuring they have a number of needs to fill, and already have a good bit of money invested in fellow DE Darnell Dockett. The Cards might risk letting Campbell hitting the open market to ensure a more cap friendly deal.
What will he cost?:
Campbell is a bit tougher to estimate his cost, because you don't know how he will be viewed. On one hand he's never had the same hype as his teammate Dockett (despite out producing him). Also he's considered just above average against the run, and while he's a great pass rusher, his role as a 5-tech end, has helped keep his sack numbers low. Of course the other case is, while his sack numbers don't match-up with elite pass rushers, he's among the best pass rushers at his positional group. He's also got great size, which causes him to clog up passing lanes, disrupting far more plays than those that he gets to the QB.
I think he'll come up short of the $12-15 million given to top pass rushers and DT's, but he should be in that $9-10.5 million range (in terms of average). Given his age and consistency, I'm thinking it will be a 6-7 year deal with a fairly high guarantee. I'll say final terms are 6 years $60 million, with $33 million guaranteed.
How will that affect the cap?:
Well the $33 million guaranteed is pretty significant so it will have an effect on the cap, and it likely means that the Skins won't be able to get out of this deal for at least 4 years. I think it will take a $21 million signing bonus, and guaranteeing the first couple years of the deal.
Year by Year breakdown: Sal=salary for that year, SB=signing bonus allotment, OB= any other bonuses, Cap hit=what he costs vs the cap, REL=what it would cost to cut a player in a given year
2012: Sal: $2.5 mil; SB: $3.5 mil; OB:$0; Cap hit: $6 million, REL: $33 million
2013: Sal: $4.5 mil; SB: $3.5 mil; OB: $0: Cap hit: $8 million; REL: $27 million
2014: Sal: $5 mil; SB: $3.5 mil; OB: $0; Cap hit: $8.5 million; REL: $19 million
2015: Sal: $7.5 mil, SB: $3.5 mil; OB: $0, Cap hit: $11 million, REL: $10.5 million
2016: Sal: $9 mil, SB: $3.5 mil; OB $0, Cap Hit: $12.5 million, REL: $7 million
2017: Sal: $10.5 mil, SB: $3.5 mil; OB $0, Cap Hit: $14 million, REL: $3.5 million
CB Brandon Carr:
Chance he re-signs: 30%
While the Chiefs have stated that he is a priority they just signed fellow CB Brandon Flowers to a big money extension and might not want to spend that much on the position. They have also used 2nd and 4th round picks in the last two drafts respectively on the corner back spot, so they do have some depth. Carr has said that he likes playing in KC, but it sounds like he's not apt to take a team friendly deal.
Chance he is franchised: 50%
The Chiefs have two big free agents this offseason in WR Dewayne Bowe and Carr. One of whom is expected to be retained via the franchise tag. It might be more likely that Bowe is tagged, but at this point it is hard to tell. The Chiefs could prefer the tag route with Carr to buy them a year for their younger CB's to develop. It also could potentially allow them to trade Carr next season if Kansas City struggles early.
What he will cost?:
Carr is a former 5th round prospect, who has come on the scene these last two years as a big time CB. I wouldn't necessarily say he's elite, but he's in the very good category. Money has been thrown around pretty generously to corners of late, but Carr will have to compete with some other talented corners this offseason, which could depress his market a little. He's not as flashy as some corners, and didn't always match-up vs a top WR (given the presence of Flowers) so I don't think his market will get too crazy. I'd guess he'll get an average between $8-9 million a year. I'll say he gets a 6 year $51 million deal, with $21 million guaranteed.
How will he affect the cap?:
Well honestly if the Redskins were to cut DeAngelo Hall who is set to count $15 million + against the cap the next two years (most of which is not guaranteed) it won't affect the Redskins that much. The $21 million guaranteed could be easily broken down into a $15 million signing bonus, with the rest paid in guaranteed salaries in the first two years. In fact the Redskins could actually save money the next two years if they play the cap right.
Year by Year breakdown: Sal=salary for that year, SB=signing bonus allotment, OB= any other bonuses, Cap hit=what he costs vs the cap, REL=what it would cost to cut a player in a given year
2012: Sal: $2.5 mil; SB: $2.5 mil; OB:$0; Cap hit: $5 million, REL: $21 million
2013: Sal: $3.5 mil; SB: $2.5 mil; OB: $0: Cap hit: $6 million; REL: $16 million
2014: Sal: $7 mil; SB: $2.5 mil; OB: $0; Cap hit: $9.5 million; REL: $10 million
2015: Sal: $8.5 mil, SB: $2.5 mil; OB: $0, Cap hit: $11 million, REL: $7.5 million
2016: Sal: $7 mil, SB: $2.5 mil; OB $0, Cap Hit: $9.5 million, REL: $5 million
2017: Sal: $7.5 mil, SB: $2.5 mil; OB $0, Cap Hit: $10 million, REL: $2.5 million
Steve Shoup will be covering Free Agency and the NFL Draft for his own site Fanspeak.com, but will provide write-ups on players for the Redskins here on Hogs Haven as well. Check out his NFL Draft Page for more details and updates throughout the draft season! HTTR!
1 recs | 71 comments
Stanford Routt got released...hmmmm
iH8dallas - February 9, 2012 via mobile
Routt is awful
he committed 17 penalties last year
Steve Shoup - February 9, 2012
Didn't Routt like just get an extension?
2up2down - February 9, 2012
yea 5 years, 20 mil guaranteed
Parks Smith - February 9, 2012
i get the new G.M. cleaning house but man is that pricey
Steve Shoup - February 9, 2012
Yea I wonder if there was a date in the contract like Holmes?
Parks Smith - February 9, 2012
Tomorrow.
iH8dallas - February 9, 2012 via mobile
dude is not awful
he’s a starter in this league, he’s not the number 1 corner, but he’s a hell of a second corner…he’s a real intelligent player as well. in 2010 he had the second lowest completion percentage of passes thrown his way (Revis was first). Granted he was playing the second corner to nhdami, but those are good numbers going against a team’s second receiver (he had like 90 some odd balls thrown his way that year, that’s a lot). Penalties are a problem, but I think getting out of oakland and that culture will cut down on a lot of those.
atark001 - February 9, 2012
he's had 28 penalties in 2 years, and given up 13 TD's over the same time frame. While he does knock quite a few balls away that is a lot of mistakes for a guy who's contract average of nearly $11 million was in the top 4 of all CB's.
Unless his price tag plummets he is def. awful at that price. He’s a better D-Hall, at a more expensive rate.
Steve Shoup - February 9, 2012
I don't think there's a doubt his price tag would come down
atark001 - February 9, 2012
this is my problem though already some talking heads are saying he's the 3rd or 4th best CB behind Grimes, Finnegan and Carr
I’d put him at least behind Rogers and 2-3 other guys. And then the next teir of guys are probably better value.
Steve Shoup - February 9, 2012
Here's my rankings
1. Brent Grimes, Atlanta Falcons
2. Brandon Carr, Kansas City Chiefs
3. Carlos Rogers, San Francisco 49ers
4. Cortland Finnegan, Tennessee Titans
5. Tracy Porter, New Orleans
6. Terrell Thomas, New York Giants
7. Stanford Routt, Oakland Raiders
8. Richard Marshall, Arizona Cardinals
9. William Gay, Pittsburgh Steelers
10. Aaron Ross, New York Giants
10 B. Rashean Mathis, Jacksonville Jaguars
Parks Smith - February 10, 2012
that is about where I am, though i'd probably flip Routt and Marshall if for no other reason than cost
Steve Shoup - February 10, 2012
PFT is reporting today...
that Dallas, KC are also interested in Routt. I find KC’s interest slightly intriguing. Perhaps they are going to franchise Bowe, and replace Carr with Routt. That is, of course, IF they could sign him. Dallas may outbid everyone.
jgibbsfan1 - February 11, 2012
Routt is a press corner, wouldn't be good fit...
He might end up playing for his old DC in Dallas
Parks Smith - February 9, 2012
for as often as we blitz
I’ll take a good press corner
atark001 - February 9, 2012
You'd love Juan Castillo
Parks Smith - February 9, 2012
I don't get it
?
atark001 - February 9, 2012
He severely misuses the talents of his corners
Parks Smith - February 9, 2012
oh ok
how would his skills be misused here?
atark001 - February 9, 2012
I don't think we use press coverage all that much, so why not find someone who fits our strengths?
Parks Smith - February 9, 2012
why not add a skillset to our defense that we lack?
none of our CBs are good at jamming receivers at the line of scrimmage
atark001 - February 9, 2012
I get what you're saying, but I don't think Haslett wants to press.
Maybe Rodskins knows?
I just think there are a lot better options than Routt
Parks Smith - February 9, 2012
haha, maybe he does (that post escalated fast ha)
fair enough, but I think his skills would compliment wilson’s and hall’s, and solve our nickel back problem (and really in this day in age a nickel back is a starter) at what I think will be a reasonable price. Plus, Haslett may press more if he thought he had CBs who could jam well enough, gives us options defensively.
I don’t want to be captured by the moment because he just now got released, but he’s worth a look I say, but yea there are a lot of decent CBs in free agency and the draft this year.
atark001 - February 9, 2012
his reputation far exceeds his skill level
the guy led the league in TD’s allowed and penalties. he’s essentially a better version of Hall, and just as overhyped. There should be quite a few better CB options this year (including Carr) that can be had for similar or less money.
Steve Shoup - February 9, 2012
(I'm a closet raiders fan)
so maybe I think higher than him of others, but I’ve watched enough raiders games over the past couple years to think he’d fit right in with what we’d like to do here
atark001 - February 9, 2012
i'd have to see a good price for me too consider
I just don’t think the high risk/ high reward guys are what we need. But i could just be so bitter b/c of Hall.
Steve Shoup - February 9, 2012
haha that's fair though
I mean that raider’s defense was unique in how much man-to-man coverage they ran, so you kinda have to project how their CBs would play in other schemes
atark001 - February 9, 2012
that is true
we def. don’t run as much man, but we don’t press as much either
Steve Shoup - February 9, 2012
we do get beat a lot underneath on 3rd and long
i like bump corners
Howard11 - February 9, 2012
except he misses quite a bit
Steve Shoup - February 9, 2012
My prediction for Calais Campbell is that he ends up a Cowboy
Parks Smith - February 9, 2012
god i hope not
Steve Shoup - February 9, 2012
I wanted Campbell
In the draft. Sure, he hasn’t been as good as I thought he’d be, but I’d still take him over the the guys we wasted those picks on, none of who were playing for us at the end of last year.
CJHutch - February 9, 2012
Campbell's been amazing, he just doesn't have the rep because people overvalue Dockett
Steve Shoup - February 9, 2012
Can Campbell do THIS!?!
Parks Smith - February 9, 2012
no and that is pretty much his problem
Steve Shoup - February 9, 2012
Yeah, I'm not
Trying to downplay his production, but I actually thought he was gonna be a top 5 talent at his position, at least.
CJHutch - February 10, 2012
i think he is
he’s just under valued
Steve Shoup - February 10, 2012
I voted both
with the intention of letting Hall walk. I really like the thought of a quality four man rotation on our defensive front. Carr for Hall & it actually saves money ?? No-brainer
ENsDad27 - February 9, 2012
Pointed this out on your Carr thread.
Bowe is probably an easier re-sign for the Chiefs then Carr is I it’s highly unlikely that they let him walk while getting nothing for him. With the influx of good WRs in FA and in the draft Bowe’s price tag will likely lower and easier to re-sign before the deadline or easier to compete against other teams to get once FA starts. If they don’t re-sign him there are plenty of other options.
As far as CBs like Carr, they aren’t exactly a dime a dozen and are much harder to replace. Our second rounder, Arenas is our nickel CB and Jalil Brown is no where near ready to be the guy. It’s been discussed that maybe the Chiefs let Carr walk and then use a high round pick on a new DB but that seems counterproductive. If they do franchise him, expect a long term deal to be in place before the season starts.
GenericBrand - February 9, 2012
What's your read on the Chief's QB situation?
Think they’ll make a play for Orton to stay?
atark001 - February 9, 2012
I think the only thing most people can agree on is Cassel isn't the long term answer and likely won't get us over the hump.
He could very well be our Dilfer if we get a couple more pieces in place for the defense(like re-signing Carr and getting an actual two gap NT) and take the next leap to be a top 5 D. The problem alot of fans have now is because we’ve had Cassel forced down our throats for three years, and likely one more coming up, that people are ready for any option to replace him. Whether it be Orton or Manning or mortgaging our future a la Raiders and trading away picks for RGIII, people just seem to be grasping for any hope of anyone different under center.
I’m not sure that’s the best way to deal with it. The problem this offseason is I’m not sure a long term solution is there. I wouldn’t be surprised if Orton comes into play or if the team at least kicks his tires but he would be a marginal upgrade. It seems like since his first presser Crennel is distancing himself from any question about Cassel and seems to be talking up Orton a bit. I doubt we’ll see any mid round developmental guys brought in because we have one of those, unless theyre ready to give up on Stanzi that quick. Ultimately though, unless Indy is stupid enough to take RGIII and we trade the farm to STL for Luck I don’t think a permanent solution can be found until next years draft or free agency.
GenericBrand - February 9, 2012
You just hate RGIII
You think you can hide GB :)
Steve_Chiefs - February 9, 2012
Nuuuuuu
I just hate the idea of trading up multiple, high draft picks for a guy who should be the posterchild of Boom/Bust players. Find a stopgap that’s better then Cassel this year or at least push him with legit competition and then next year get your guy in the first round or FA.
GenericBrand - February 10, 2012
interesting
I agree with your assessment of the QB market/draft this year, I’ve kinda resigned myself to the fact that we too may have to muddle through with an average QB this year and hope for something next year. I always like Crennel, I think he can get more of a fair shot in KC, than he did in Cleveland (more talent, better scouting). Does your fan base feel comfortable with him at the helm?
atark001 - February 9, 2012
Yes, we do
But we know it is only a short term deal
Steve_Chiefs - February 9, 2012
ahhh, gotcha
who is your offensive coordinator now? I like what you guys got on defense so far, just need that offense to step up.
atark001 - February 9, 2012
Brian Daboll who was in Miami last year.
The knee jerk reaction to the hiring wasn’t good because he looks like just another Pioli cronie hiring. But he seems to be an improving young coordinator that can get alot out of the talent he has. Last year over the last 9 games(after Miami finally got a win), the Dolphins were the 10th ranked scoring offense after starting out rather slow. He made Matt Moore look serviceable, Reggie Bush look like a RB and gave them the franchises first 1000 rusher and receiver in the same season. I think now that all the hoopla over the hiring has calmed down, we’re in “wait and see and hoping for the best” mode.
GenericBrand - February 10, 2012
i'm sure they want him back on some level
but it’s not easy to pay both Carr and Flowers, esp. when you have Hali, Johnson, Berry, Jackson and Dorsey making bank already on defense.
Not saying they won’t try, but it just might not be that easy.
Steve Shoup - February 9, 2012
Flowers, Berry and Hali are the big ticket items on defense.
Johnson we got at a pretty low price and Dorsey and Jackson come off the books(at least as far as their top 5 pick money) after next season. As much as a lot of people aren’t happy with Pioli, one thing he does deserve credit for is how well he balances and builds his players contracts to work and how he looks ahead to make sure that all the pieces fit. Right now we’re sitting on a huge amount of cap space(to the dismay of many fans but it’s there for this exact reason) and signing Carr is well within financial reach. I think even if they can’t sign him long term though, and choose to lose him, they will at least tag him and get something in return for him.
GenericBrand - February 9, 2012
i def. agree its possible, esp. in using the tag
one thing though with Dorsey and Jackson’s contracts coming due the team has to decide what to do. Both guys are really starting to play better, so its not as though it is a huge windfall.
Steve Shoup - February 9, 2012
For sure.
Jackson is a keeper. Although some people will never get over him being the 3rd pick, he’s really rounding out to be a great DE in our system so I think they re-sign him to something more manageable then 8-9M$/year maybe in the Keisel range of 3-4M$/season.
Dorsey on the other hand…well I’m not sure anyone knows what to do with him. It wouldn’t shock me to see him traded before(or during) the draft and it wouldn’t shock me to see him sign a long term contract. If he is re-signed it won’t be at a huge savings because he’s only eating up 5 and change this year but it will save some.
I think the biggest thing against re-signing Carr is if you do you’re staring at a defensive backfield worth 30M$/year and it could be more but your other starting safety is only making 450k. It’s a passing league though. There’s a premium on guys like this and on pass rushers. If you have good, young players at those positions you better hang onto them.
GenericBrand - February 9, 2012
Lewis was a 5th rounder also
I say sign the proven players or as you say Franchise em and see who bites.
Pioli way
Steve_Chiefs - February 9, 2012
so here is our tally...
LG Grubbs, C Myers & our new addition DB Carr.
Not a bad offseason for FA signings. Now let’s get ready for the draft…
jgibbsfan1 - February 9, 2012
that would make a pretty great offseason
Steve Shoup - February 9, 2012
Montgomery is not going to be replaced, you're dreaming
Parks Smith - February 10, 2012
Really – it’s that guaranteed that he’ll keep his job huh?
smutsboy1 - February 10, 2012
Parks Smith - February 10, 2012
Another great article, Steve.
Thanks for the data and the perspective.
You’re hired.
DC2AZ99 - February 9, 2012
haha thanks, i'm glad I can help
Steve Shoup - February 9, 2012
Didn't mention it before
But this is a great post by the way. A ton of information and the salary cap breakdown is genius. Really great job.
GenericBrand - February 10, 2012
Thanks I appreciate it
there are so many ways to due a contract so i basically go with the ‘safest/smartest’ way.
Steve Shoup - February 10, 2012
off topic
How does a team go about firing it’s medical staff? I’ve never heard of moves being made there.
Just seems like when we get a player injured (a bad one) he’s done forever.
Laron Landry injures Achilles heel
staff carries him off
Landry: why we not going to doctor?
Staff: bite this stick
Landry: what you doing
Staff: if you ever want to play again we’ll need to remove your foot
Landry: the f—- I’m supposed to do with no foot. I can’t play like that
Staff: trust us we’ve done this before, with Ronnie Lott
Landry: that was his pinky!
Howard11 - February 10, 2012 via iPhone app
1) Why would the club publicly announce medical staff changes?
2) Landry example is terrible since we’ve advised him to get surgery OVER and OVER
3) How do you know this staff is worse or better than any other team’s staff?
Parks Smith - February 10, 2012
did you not read anything that Landry or Malcolm Kelly Has said
Do you not remember it taking Santana 2 years to recover from a hamstring problem. Mark brunelle going out there like the bionic man?
This is the only team I know of where a hamstring is a season ender. Could you imagine if we had ap and he tore his acl like tha? He would never be productive again.
Howard11 - February 10, 2012 via iPhone app
Yea I read everything about Landry and he's the one that has foregone surgery for years
With all due respect, this is one of the dumbest things I’ve ever read here. You don’t even know who is on the medical staff, who was on the medical staff, and what their techniques are compared to other clubs. The Redskins have employed the best athletic orthopedic surgeon in the history of the world, I think AP would be just fine here compared to Minnesota.
Malcolm Kelly? Really that’s your evidence? His knee was messed up dating all the way back to college, then he tweaked his hamstring in preseason. What the hell could the training staff could’ve done about that? Does it surprise you that one of the 31 other NFL teams hasn’t signed Kelly and used their magical healing ways to make him a Pro Bowl WR?
Parks Smith - February 10, 2012
it doesn't appear he gave any thought to what he was saying...
jgibbsfan1 - February 10, 2012
What about Routt??
The Raiders just cut him and he has shut down some pretty good WR’s. He might be a little expensive, but I think he’s worth it.
http://profootball.scout.com/2/1157299.html
tmarine17 - February 10, 2012
Whoops
I see I was late to the dance. The first reply in the comments talks about Routt…
tmarine17 - February 10, 2012
What about...
a couple of 2nd tier FAs -
RT Barry Richardson? Anyone have any opinions on his talent level?
MLB Larry Grant? Again, young backup type, maybe ready to breakout?
I have seen so little of these guys, I am unqualified to give an opinion, but wonder what anyone else thinks….
jgibbsfan1 - February 11, 2012
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